Washington 5 House race
Nate Powell (I) and Michael Baumgartner (R) are running for the House seat in Washington 5. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Nate Powell at 53.0% and Michael Baumgartner at 47.0%, which is Powell +6.0. That gives Nate Powell a 74% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean I.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Powell leads; below it Baumgartner leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Powell (I) | Baumgartner (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research | May 25 | 578 LV | 53.0 | 47.0 | Powell +6.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.