Montana 1 House race
Sam Forstag (D) and Aaron Flint (R) are running for the House seat in Montana 1. Across 4 polls, the Frothier average has Sam Forstag at 45.2% and Aaron Flint at 45.4%, which is Flint +0.2. That gives Aaron Flint a 51% chance of winning, and the race is rated Toss-up.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Forstag leads; below it Flint leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Forstag (D) | Flint (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Pulse Research & Polling | Sep 24 | 314 LV | 45.4 | 45.9 | Flint +0.5 |
| Impact ResearchD poll | Sep 23 | 500 LV | 47.0 | 44.0 | Forstag +3.0 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Sep 10 | 536 RV | 45.0 | 43.0 | Forstag +2.0 |
| Impact ResearchD poll | Jun 25 | 500 LV | 44.0 | 44.0 | Even |
| Upswing ResearchD poll | May 5 | 401 LV | 43.0 | 48.0 | Flint +5.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.