Ohio 10 House race
Kristina Knickerbocker (D) and Mike Turner (R) are running for the House seat in Ohio 10. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Kristina Knickerbocker at 39.1% and Mike Turner at 47.3%, which is Turner +8.2. That gives Mike Turner a 84% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Knickerbocker leads; below it Turner leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Knickerbocker (D) | Turner (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy GroupD poll | Jul 23 | 700 LV | 40.0 | 45.0 | Turner +5.0 |
| FM3 ResearchD poll | Jul 12 | LV | 41.0 | 48.0 | Turner +7.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.