Ohio governor's race
Amy Acton (D) and Vivek Ramaswamy (R) are running for governor of Ohio. Across 11 polls, the Frothier average has Amy Acton at 48.6% and Vivek Ramaswamy at 44.6%, which is Acton +4.0. After blending the polls with how Ohio usually votes, the estimate is Acton +3.0. That gives Amy Acton a 68% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean D. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Acton leads; below it Ramaswamy leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Acton (D) | Ramaswamy (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 1 | 616 LV | 49.0 | 45.0 | Acton +3.9 |
| YouGov | Sep 30 | 3,777 LV | 48.0 | 44.0 | Acton +4.0 |
| Big Data Poll | Sep 27 | 680 LV | 46.8 | 47.9 | Ramaswamy +1.1 |
| Suffolk University | Sep 27 | 500 LV | 50.4 | 41.4 | Acton +9.0 |
| Marist University | Sep 27 | 1,298 RV | 50.0 | 44.0 | Acton +6.0 |
| YouGov | Sep 10 | 1,000 LV | 48.0 | 45.0 | Acton +3.0 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Aug 13 | 800 LV | 47.0 | 46.0 | Acton +1.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Aug 10 | 1,008 RV | 48.0 | 50.0 | Ramaswamy +2.0 |
| Tulchin ResearchD poll | Aug 4 | 600 LV | 46.0 | 44.0 | Acton +2.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 28 | 601 LV | 46.7 | 46.9 | Ramaswamy +0.2 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | Jun 16 | 800 LV | 47.0 | 44.0 | Acton +3.0 |
| Tulchin ResearchD poll | Jun 4 | 600 LV | 47.0 | 44.0 | Acton +3.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Jun 1 | 1,015 RV | 50.0 | 49.0 | Acton +1.0 |
| Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov | Apr 14 | 1,000 RV | 47.0 | 48.0 | Ramaswamy +1.0 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 9 | 413 LV | 44.0 | 49.0 | Ramaswamy +5.0 |
| Quantus Insights | Mar 14 | 809 LV | 45.9 | 44.9 | Acton +1.0 |
| EMC Research | Feb 22 | 1,343 LV | 53.0 | 43.0 | Acton +10.0 |
| Data Targeting | Dec 8 | 603 LV | 43.0 | 45.0 | Ramaswamy +2.0 |
| Emerson College | Dec 8 | 850 RV | 45.9 | 45.2 | Acton +0.7 |
| Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov | Oct 14 | 800 RV | 47.0 | 50.0 | Ramaswamy +3.0 |
| Hart Research AssociatesD poll | Sep 22 | 800 LV | 46.0 | 45.0 | Acton +1.0 |
| Emerson College | Aug 19 | 1,000 RV | 39.4 | 48.7 | Ramaswamy +9.3 |
| Impact ResearchD poll | Jul 28 | 800 LV | 46.0 | 47.0 | Ramaswamy +1.0 |
| Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov | Apr 24 | 800 RV | 45.0 | 50.0 | Ramaswamy +5.0 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Feb 20 | 642 RV | 45.0 | 44.0 | Acton +1.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.