Florida governor's race
David Jolly (D) and Byron Donalds (R) are running for governor of Florida. Across 9 polls, the Frothier average has David Jolly at 44.0% and Byron Donalds at 46.9%, which is Donalds +2.9. After blending the polls with how Florida usually votes, the estimate is Donalds +2.9. That gives Byron Donalds a 68% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Jolly leads; below it Donalds leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Jolly (D) | Donalds (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Oct 5 | 3,813 LV | 45.0 | 47.0 | Donalds +2.0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | Oct 1 | 625 LV | 41.0 | 48.0 | Donalds +7.0 |
| Change Research | Sep 27 | 1,063 LV | 48.0 | 46.0 | Jolly +2.0 |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | Sep 21 | 830 LV | 39.0 | 51.0 | Donalds +12.0 |
| St. Pete Polls | Sep 17 | 913 LV | 43.4 | 43.5 | Donalds +0.1 |
| Change Research | Sep 9 | 1,107 LV | 47.0 | 44.0 | Jolly +3.0 |
| Hart Research AssociatesD poll | Aug 13 | 600 LV | 46.0 | 45.0 | Jolly +1.0 |
| Targoz Market Research | Jul 26 | 1,026 LV | 38.0 | 45.0 | Donalds +7.0 |
| University of North Florida | Jul 17 | 848 LV | 41.4 | 46.1 | Donalds +4.7 |
| Kaplan Strategies | Jun 9 | 668 LV | 29.8 | 34.9 | Donalds +5.1 |
| Change Research | May 16 | 1,593 LV | 46.0 | 42.0 | Jolly +4.0 |
| Cherry CommunicationsR poll | May 9 | 604 LV | 39.0 | 47.0 | Donalds +8.0 |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | Apr 13 | 848 LV | 40.0 | 47.0 | Donalds +7.0 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 9 | 406 LV | 43.0 | 49.0 | Donalds +6.0 |
| MDW Communications | Apr 3 | 1,834 LV | 40.5 | 41.2 | Donalds +0.7 |
| Emerson College | Mar 31 | 1,125 LV | 39.4 | 44.2 | Donalds +4.8 |
| University of North Florida | Mar 2 | 776 LV | 36.0 | 42.0 | Donalds +6.0 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | Feb 20 | 124 LV | 42.3 | 35.8 | Jolly +6.5 |
| Targoz Market Research | Feb 16 | LV | 36.0 | 41.0 | Donalds +5.0 |
| University of North FloridaD poll | Oct 25 | 728 LV | 34.0 | 45.0 | Donalds +11.0 |
| Targoz Market Research | Sep 18 | 1,118 RV | 32.0 | 36.0 | Donalds +4.0 |
| Bendixen & Amandi InternationalD poll | Sep 9 | 631 LV | 41.0 | 40.0 | Jolly +1.0 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | Aug 27 | 800 LV | 41.0 | 49.0 | Donalds +8.0 |
| Victory Insights | Jun 10 | 600 LV | 31.4 | 36.7 | Donalds +5.3 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.