Nebraska governor's race
Lynne Walz (D) and Jim Pillen (R) are running for governor of Nebraska. Across 6 polls, the Frothier average has Lynne Walz at 39.6% and Jim Pillen at 43.8%, which is Pillen +4.2. After blending the polls with how Nebraska usually votes, the estimate is Pillen +4.8. That gives Jim Pillen a 77% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Walz leads; below it Pillen leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Walz (D) | Pillen (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Oct 3 | 1,808 LV | 43.0 | 44.0 | Pillen +1.0 |
| co/efficient | Sep 30 | 1,113 LV | 38.0 | 42.0 | Pillen +4.0 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Sep 16 | 500 LV | 36.0 | 53.0 | Pillen +17.0 |
| Lake Research PartnersD poll | Sep 14 | 900 LV | 40.0 | 40.0 | Even |
| SurveyUSA | Sep 13 | 503 LV | 35.0 | 43.0 | Pillen +8.0 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Sep 2 | 559 RV | 31.0 | 32.0 | Pillen +1.0 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Apr 7 | 670 RV | 33.0 | 38.0 | Pillen +5.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.