Georgia governor's race
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) and Rick Jackson (R) are running for governor of Georgia. Across 10 polls, the Frothier average has Keisha Lance Bottoms at 47.0% and Rick Jackson at 48.9%, which is Jackson +1.9. After blending the polls with how Georgia usually votes, the estimate is Jackson +0.8. That gives Rick Jackson a 55% chance of winning, and the race is rated Toss-up. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Bottoms leads; below it Jackson leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Bottoms (D) | Jackson (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wedgewood Polls | Oct 3 | 600 LV | 49.0 | 51.0 | Jackson +2.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 23 | 1,200 LV | 46.0 | 48.0 | Jackson +2.0 |
| Big Data Poll | Sep 23 | 678 LV | 49.5 | 50.5 | Jackson +1.0 |
| YouGov | Sep 18 | 3,069 LV | 44.0 | 47.0 | Jackson +3.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Aug 17 | 800 LV | 46.2 | 46.3 | Jackson +0.1 |
| Quantus Insights | Aug 1 | 815 LV | 46.4 | 44.9 | Bottoms +1.5 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | Jul 16 | 1,060 LV | 48.0 | 46.0 | Bottoms +2.0 |
| State Navigate | Jul 13 | 448 LV | 51.0 | 44.0 | Bottoms +7.0 |
| Wick | Jun 30 | 1,175 LV | 42.7 | 43.2 | Jackson +0.5 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Jun 27 | 1,002 RV | 52.0 | 47.0 | Bottoms +5.0 |
| Concord Public Opinion PartnersD poll | Jun 2 | 510 LV | 53.0 | 38.0 | Bottoms +15.0 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 9 | 407 LV | 49.0 | 43.0 | Bottoms +6.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.