Nevada governor's race
Aaron Ford (D) and Joe Lombardo (R) are running for governor of Nevada. Across 7 polls, the Frothier average has Aaron Ford at 41.4% and Joe Lombardo at 42.4%, which is Lombardo +1.1. After blending the polls with how Nevada usually votes, the estimate is Lombardo +0.1. That gives Joe Lombardo a 51% chance of winning, and the race is rated Toss-up. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Ford leads; below it Lombardo leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Ford (D) | Lombardo (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights | Sep 26 | 708 LV | 40.0 | 42.0 | Lombardo +2.0 |
| Emerson College | Sep 8 | 680 LV | 44.2 | 42.1 | Ford +2.1 |
| Tarrance GroupR poll | Jul 29 | 550 LV | 43.0 | 50.0 | Lombardo +7.0 |
| Grassroots TargetingR poll | Jul 16 | 2,500 LV | 40.0 | 52.0 | Lombardo +12.0 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Jul 16 | 558 LV | 44.0 | 44.0 | Even |
| Wedgewood Polls | Jul 12 | 700 LV | 47.0 | 50.0 | Lombardo +3.0 |
| Public Opinion StrategiesR poll | Jun 29 | 600 LV | 42.0 | 51.0 | Lombardo +9.0 |
| Global Strategy GroupD poll | May 11 | 700 LV | 42.0 | 45.0 | Lombardo +3.0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Mar 13 | 845 RV | 38.0 | 39.0 | Lombardo +1.0 |
| Hart Research AssociatesD poll | Feb 17 | 800 LV | 43.0 | 46.0 | Lombardo +3.0 |
| Emerson College | Nov 18 | 800 RV | 41.1 | 41.1 | Even |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Oct 13 | 766 RV | 37.0 | 40.0 | Lombardo +3.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.