Vermont governor's race
Amanda Janoo (D) and Phil Scott (R) are running for governor of Vermont. Across 5 polls, the Frothier average has Amanda Janoo at 42.4% and Phil Scott at 44.7%, which is Scott +2.3. After blending the polls with how Vermont usually votes, the estimate is Janoo +3.0. That gives Amanda Janoo a 68% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean D. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Janoo leads; below it Scott leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Janoo (D) | Scott (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Navigate | Oct 4 | 948 LV | 43.0 | 46.0 | Scott +3.0 |
| Braun Research | Sep 21 | 732 LV | 34.4 | 43.7 | Scott +9.3 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21 | 829 LV | 49.0 | 43.0 | Janoo +6.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jul 20 | 925 LV | 33.0 | 44.0 | Scott +11.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 23 | 867 LV | 27.0 | 42.0 | Scott +15.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.