Iowa governor's race
Rob Sand (D) and Zach Lahn (R) are running for governor of Iowa. Across 14 polls, the Frothier average has Rob Sand at 51.9% and Zach Lahn at 42.6%, which is Sand +9.3. After blending the polls with how Iowa usually votes, the estimate is Sand +7.2. That gives Rob Sand a 88% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely D. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Sand leads; below it Lahn leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Sand (D) | Lahn (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | Oct 4 | 500 LV | 54.8 | 42.8 | Sand +12.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 1 | 606 LV | 52.0 | 40.9 | Sand +11.2 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Sep 28 | 1,008 LV | 53.0 | 44.0 | Sand +9.0 |
| Marist University | Sep 20 | 1,050 RV | 54.0 | 42.0 | Sand +12.0 |
| co/efficient | Sep 16 | 831 LV | 46.0 | 42.0 | Sand +4.0 |
| Cygnal PoliticalR poll | Sep 11 | 500 LV | 47.8 | 44.4 | Sand +3.4 |
| YouGov | Sep 8 | 2,041 LV | 51.0 | 41.0 | Sand +10.0 |
| Emerson College | Sep 1 | 750 LV | 48.6 | 45.5 | Sand +3.1 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Aug 29 | 600 LV | 51.0 | 46.0 | Sand +5.0 |
| Suffolk University | Aug 23 | 500 LV | 47.8 | 43.6 | Sand +4.2 |
| Emerson College | Aug 4 | 712 LV | 48.4 | 42.7 | Sand +5.7 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Jun 27 | 1,003 RV | 53.0 | 44.0 | Sand +9.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 27 | 600 LV | 48.2 | 46.5 | Sand +1.6 |
| Cygnal PoliticalR poll | Jun 19 | 600 LV | 47.7 | 43.4 | Sand +4.3 |
| Global Strategy GroupD poll | Apr 28 | LV | 50.0 | 41.0 | Sand +9.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.