Iowa Senate race
Josh Turek (D) and Ashley Hinson (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in Iowa. Across 20 polls, the Frothier average has Josh Turek at 47.0% and Ashley Hinson at 45.6%, which is Turek +1.3. After blending the polls with how Iowa usually votes, the estimate is Even. That gives Ashley Hinson a 50% chance of winning, and the race is rated Toss-up. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Turek leads; below it Hinson leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Turek (D) | Hinson (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | Oct 4 | 500 LV | 48.0 | 43.6 | Turek +4.4 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 1 | 606 LV | 47.0 | 47.8 | Hinson +0.9 |
| Quantus Insights | Sep 29 | 738 LV | 46.6 | 48.5 | Hinson +1.9 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Sep 28 | 1,008 LV | 49.0 | 47.0 | Turek +2.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 23 | 1,200 LV | 47.4 | 45.7 | Turek +1.7 |
| Marist University | Sep 20 | 1,050 RV | 50.0 | 42.0 | Turek +8.0 |
| Trafalgar GroupR poll | Sep 18 | 1,089 LV | 42.1 | 44.0 | Hinson +1.9 |
| co/efficient | Sep 16 | 831 LV | 42.0 | 46.0 | Hinson +4.0 |
| Cygnal PoliticalR poll | Sep 11 | 500 LV | 42.9 | 42.9 | Even |
| YouGov | Sep 8 | 2,041 LV | 47.0 | 43.0 | Turek +4.0 |
| Emerson College | Sep 1 | 750 LV | 45.1 | 49.5 | Hinson +4.4 |
| Global Strategy GroupD poll | Aug 31 | 800 LV | 46.0 | 42.0 | Turek +4.0 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Aug 29 | 600 LV | 48.0 | 50.0 | Hinson +2.0 |
| Abacus Data | Aug 28 | 323 LV | 48.0 | 41.0 | Turek +7.0 |
| Suffolk University | Aug 23 | 500 LV | 40.8 | 45.4 | Hinson +4.6 |
| Emerson College | Aug 4 | 712 LV | 45.0 | 47.5 | Hinson +2.5 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Jun 27 | 1,003 RV | 50.0 | 46.0 | Turek +4.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 27 | 600 LV | 46.0 | 48.5 | Hinson +2.5 |
| Cygnal PoliticalR poll | Jun 19 | 600 LV | 44.2 | 46.0 | Hinson +1.8 |
| Global Strategy GroupD poll | Jun 11 | 1,000 LV | 47.0 | 45.0 | Turek +2.0 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Jun 4 | 557 RV | 46.0 | 46.0 | Even |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 9 | 377 LV | 46.0 | 45.0 | Turek +1.0 |
| GBAOD poll | Mar 16 | 1,200 LV | 43.0 | 47.0 | Hinson +4.0 |
| Change Research | Jan 11 | 1,108 LV | 41.0 | 44.0 | Hinson +3.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.