Maine Senate race
Troy Jackson (D) and Susan Collins (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in Maine. Across 20 polls, the Frothier average has Troy Jackson at 48.9% and Susan Collins at 47.0%, which is Jackson +1.9. After blending the polls with how Maine usually votes, the estimate is Jackson +4.8. That gives Troy Jackson a 81% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean D. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Jackson leads; below it Collins leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Jackson (D) | Collins (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist University | Oct 4 | 1,505 RV | 51.0 | 47.0 | Jackson +4.0 |
| Trafalgar GroupR poll | Oct 1 | 1,091 LV | 46.2 | 45.9 | Jackson +0.3 |
| YouGov | Oct 1 | 1,136 LV | 50.0 | 50.0 | Even |
| Wedgewood Polls | Oct 1 | 400 LV | 52.0 | 48.0 | Jackson +4.0 |
| co/efficient | Sep 30 | 1,240 LV | 46.0 | 48.0 | Collins +2.0 |
| Maine People's Resource Center | Sep 29 | 684 LV | 49.3 | 46.5 | Jackson +2.8 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 23 | 1,200 LV | 46.4 | 45.6 | Jackson +0.8 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | Sep 22 | 982 LV | 50.0 | 47.0 | Jackson +3.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 22 | 619 LV | 45.9 | 48.7 | Collins +2.7 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21 | 1,301 LV | 51.0 | 47.0 | Jackson +4.0 |
| Quantus Insights | Sep 15 | 621 LV | 47.4 | 47.6 | Collins +0.2 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov | Sep 14 | 650 LV | 48.0 | 43.0 | Jackson +5.0 |
| YouGov | Sep 8 | 1,335 LV | 48.0 | 44.0 | Jackson +4.0 |
| CNN/SSRS | Sep 6 | 880 LV | 48.0 | 45.0 | Jackson +3.0 |
| Abacus Data | Aug 28 | 327 LV | 50.0 | 42.0 | Jackson +8.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Aug 10 | 1,000 RV | 48.0 | 46.0 | Jackson +2.0 |
| Hart Research AssociatesD poll | Aug 1 | 802 LV | 49.0 | 45.0 | Jackson +4.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jul 20 | 1,178 LV | 49.0 | 46.0 | Jackson +3.0 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Jul 7 | 785 RV | 49.0 | 44.0 | Jackson +5.0 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Jul 6 | 405 LV | 48.0 | 43.0 | Jackson +5.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.