Maine governor's race
Hannah Pingree (D) and Bobby Charles (R) are running for governor of Maine. Across 13 polls, the Frothier average has Hannah Pingree at 50.6% and Bobby Charles at 39.5%, which is Pingree +11.1. After blending the polls with how Maine usually votes, the estimate is Pingree +10.8. That gives Hannah Pingree a 96% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely D. The seat is currently held by Democrats.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Pingree leads; below it Charles leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Pingree (D) | Charles (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist University | Oct 4 | 1,505 RV | 52.0 | 40.0 | Pingree +12.0 |
| YouGov | Oct 1 | 1,133 LV | 56.0 | 44.0 | Pingree +12.0 |
| co/efficient | Sep 30 | 1,240 LV | 47.0 | 38.0 | Pingree +9.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | Sep 22 | 982 LV | 52.0 | 39.0 | Pingree +13.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 22 | 619 LV | 47.0 | 34.4 | Pingree +12.5 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21 | 1,312 LV | 48.0 | 40.0 | Pingree +8.0 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov | Sep 14 | 650 LV | 49.0 | 38.0 | Pingree +11.0 |
| YouGov | Sep 8 | 1,334 LV | 47.0 | 36.0 | Pingree +11.0 |
| CNN/SSRS | Sep 6 | 880 LV | 52.0 | 39.0 | Pingree +13.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Aug 10 | 1,000 RV | 49.0 | 38.0 | Pingree +11.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jul 20 | 1,150 LV | 49.0 | 35.0 | Pingree +14.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Jun 27 | 1,003 RV | 53.0 | 42.0 | Pingree +11.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 26 | 608 LV | 49.6 | 36.4 | Pingree +13.3 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.