New Hampshire governor's race
Cinde Warmington (D) and Kelly Ayotte (R) are running for governor of New Hampshire. Across 9 polls, the Frothier average has Cinde Warmington at 41.1% and Kelly Ayotte at 50.2%, which is Ayotte +9.1. After blending the polls with how New Hampshire usually votes, the estimate is Ayotte +6.2. That gives Kelly Ayotte a 83% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Warmington leads; below it Ayotte leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Warmington (D) | Ayotte (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Oct 5 | 1,520 LV | 40.0 | 49.0 | Ayotte +9.0 |
| St. Anselm | Sep 29 | 1,042 LV | 45.0 | 52.0 | Ayotte +7.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 22 | 613 LV | 40.8 | 52.3 | Ayotte +11.5 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21 | 1,407 LV | 43.0 | 47.0 | Ayotte +4.0 |
| co/efficient | Sep 11 | 958 LV | 34.0 | 55.0 | Ayotte +21.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Aug 24 | 1,878 LV | 39.0 | 49.0 | Ayotte +10.0 |
| St. Anselm | Aug 18 | 1,411 LV | 38.0 | 49.0 | Ayotte +11.0 |
| St. Anselm | Jun 25 | 1,614 RV | 37.0 | 45.0 | Ayotte +8.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 23 | 2,221 LV | 39.0 | 44.0 | Ayotte +5.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 21 | 1,117 LV | 39.0 | 47.0 | Ayotte +8.0 |
| St. Anselm | Mar 18 | 1,491 RV | 39.0 | 46.0 | Ayotte +7.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.