New Hampshire Senate race
Chris Pappas (D) and John Sununu (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire. Across 13 polls, the Frothier average has Chris Pappas at 49.4% and John Sununu at 42.7%, which is Pappas +6.7. After blending the polls with how New Hampshire usually votes, the estimate is Pappas +7.8. That gives Chris Pappas a 92% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely D. The seat is currently held by Democrats.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Pappas leads; below it Sununu leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Pappas (D) | Sununu (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Oct 5 | 1,519 LV | 51.0 | 43.0 | Pappas +8.0 |
| St. Anselm | Sep 29 | 1,042 LV | 51.0 | 44.0 | Pappas +7.0 |
| Trafalgar GroupR poll | Sep 27 | 1,082 LV | 47.4 | 40.5 | Pappas +6.9 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 22 | 613 LV | 49.8 | 44.8 | Pappas +5.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21 | 1,392 LV | 50.0 | 42.0 | Pappas +8.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 17 | 1,200 LV | 47.8 | 39.9 | Pappas +7.9 |
| co/efficient | Sep 11 | 958 LV | 46.0 | 46.0 | Even |
| Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesR poll | Aug 30 | 600 LV | 36.0 | 37.0 | Sununu +1.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Aug 24 | 1,846 LV | 43.0 | 45.0 | Sununu +2.0 |
| St. Anselm | Aug 18 | 1,411 LV | 48.0 | 41.0 | Pappas +7.0 |
| Peak InsightsR poll | Jun 27 | 500 LV | 43.0 | 42.0 | Pappas +1.0 |
| St. Anselm | Jun 25 | 1,614 RV | 47.0 | 41.0 | Pappas +6.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 23 | 2,157 LV | 47.0 | 44.0 | Pappas +3.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 21 | 1,130 LV | 49.0 | 42.0 | Pappas +7.0 |
| Emerson College | Mar 23 | 1,100 LV | 45.4 | 43.7 | Pappas +1.7 |
| yes. every kid. foundation. | Jan 29 | 563 LV | 45.0 | 41.0 | Pappas +4.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jan 19 | 2,038 LV | 50.0 | 45.0 | Pappas +5.0 |
| Praecones Analytica | Dec 28 | 603 RV | 42.3 | 35.6 | Pappas +6.7 |
| Guidant Polling and StrategyR poll | Dec 11 | 600 LV | 47.0 | 44.0 | Pappas +3.0 |
| St. Anselm | Nov 19 | 2,212 RV | 44.0 | 41.0 | Pappas +3.0 |
| co/efficient | Oct 13 | 1,034 LV | 45.0 | 42.0 | Pappas +3.0 |
| co/efficient | Sep 12 | 904 LV | 46.0 | 43.0 | Pappas +3.0 |
| 1892 PollingR poll | Sep 4 | 500 LV | 45.0 | 43.0 | Pappas +2.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.