Kansas Senate race
Adam Hamilton (D) and Roger Marshall (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in Kansas. Across 11 polls, the Frothier average has Adam Hamilton at 46.7% and Roger Marshall at 45.1%, which is Hamilton +1.6. After blending the polls with how Kansas usually votes, the estimate is Marshall +0.5. That gives Roger Marshall a 53% chance of winning, and the race is rated Toss-up. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Hamilton leads; below it Marshall leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Hamilton (D) | Marshall (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAOD poll | Oct 4 | 600 LV | 46.0 | 41.0 | Hamilton +5.0 |
| YouGov | Oct 4 | 2,253 LV | 48.0 | 45.0 | Hamilton +3.0 |
| Trafalgar GroupR poll | Oct 1 | 1,095 LV | 44.4 | 43.5 | Hamilton +0.9 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 30 | 605 LV | 46.4 | 46.7 | Marshall +0.3 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Sep 24 | 500 LV | 50.0 | 48.0 | Hamilton +2.0 |
| Global Strategy GroupD poll | Sep 16 | 800 LV | 47.0 | 43.0 | Hamilton +4.0 |
| Emerson College | Sep 16 | 750 LV | 44.8 | 43.3 | Hamilton +1.5 |
| co/efficient | Sep 10 | 915 LV | 44.0 | 49.0 | Marshall +5.0 |
| Global Strategy GroupD poll | Aug 16 | 800 LV | 44.0 | 43.0 | Hamilton +1.0 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Aug 8 | RV | 45.0 | 46.0 | Marshall +1.0 |
| GBAOD poll | Jul 13 | 600 LV | 43.0 | 47.0 | Marshall +4.0 |
| Tavern Research | Jan 28 | 1,013 LV | 46.0 | 54.0 | Marshall +8.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.