South Carolina Senate race
Annie Andrews (D) and Darline Graham (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in South Carolina. Across 5 polls, the Frothier average has Annie Andrews at 43.9% and Darline Graham at 45.2%, which is Graham +1.3. After blending the polls with how South Carolina usually votes, the estimate is Graham +3.4. That gives Darline Graham a 71% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Andrews leads; below it Graham leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Andrews (D) | Graham (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 29 | 1,200 LV | 45.0 | 46.0 | Graham +1.0 |
| Trafalgar GroupR poll | Sep 25 | 1,087 LV | 42.3 | 43.4 | Graham +1.1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 9 | 1,200 LV | 43.2 | 45.1 | Graham +1.9 |
| Abacus Data | Aug 28 | 306 LV | 38.0 | 51.0 | Graham +13.0 |
| Impact ResearchD poll | Aug 24 | 700 LV | 41.0 | 41.0 | Even |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.