Who is leading the Nebraska Senate race polls?

Pete Ricketts +0.8 in the Frothier average of 7 polls (Dan Osborn 45.3%, Pete Ricketts 46.1%), as of October 8, 2026.

Who is favored to win the Nebraska Senate race?

Frothier rates the race Lean R. Pete Ricketts has about a 73% chance of winning. That is a probability, not a call.

Nebraska Senate race

Updated October 8, 2026 · 26 days until the November 3 election

Dan Osborn (D) and Pete Ricketts (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in Nebraska. Across 7 polls, the Frothier average has Dan Osborn at 45.3% and Pete Ricketts at 46.1%, which is Ricketts +0.8. After blending the polls with how Nebraska usually votes, the estimate is Ricketts +3.6. That gives Pete Ricketts a 73% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R. The seat is currently held by Republicans.

Rating

Lean R

Set by the win estimate

Chance of winning

73%

Pete Ricketts (R)

Polling average

Ricketts +0.8

7 polls, newest Oct 3

Frothier estimate

Ricketts +3.6

Give or take 5.9 points

Where the race stands

Dan OsbornDemocrat

45.3%

Pete RickettsRepublican

46.1%

Chance of winning

Osborn 27%Ricketts 73%

How the polls have moved

The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Osborn leads; below it Ricketts leads.

Recent polls

Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.

Pollster	Ended	Sample	Osborn (D)	Ricketts (R)	Margin
YouGov	Oct 3	1,808 LV	48.0	47.0	Osborn +1.0
co/efficient	Sep 30	1,113 LV	40.0	44.0	Ricketts +4.0
Wedgewood Polls	Sep 16	500 LV	48.0	52.0	Ricketts +4.0
SurveyUSA	Sep 13	503 LV	46.0	42.0	Osborn +4.0
GBAO	Sep 8	800 LV	47.0	46.0	Osborn +1.0
Impact ResearchD poll	Aug 13	600 LV	47.0	47.0	Even
GBAO	Jul 26	800 LV	47.0	47.0	Even
Tavern Research	May 11	1,165 LV	47.0	42.0	Osborn +5.0
GBAO	Apr 20	800 LV	46.0	45.0	Osborn +1.0
Impact ResearchD poll	Feb 5	600 LV	47.0	48.0	Ricketts +1.0
Change ResearchD poll	Apr 1	524 LV	45.0	46.0	Ricketts +1.0

How this estimate is made

Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.

Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.