Louisiana Senate race
Jamie Davis (D) and Julia Letlow (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in Louisiana. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Jamie Davis at 42.4% and Julia Letlow at 48.9%, which is Letlow +6.5. After blending the polls with how Louisiana usually votes, the estimate is Letlow +8.8. That gives Julia Letlow a 90% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely R. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Davis leads; below it Letlow leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Davis (D) | Letlow (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research AssociatesD poll | Sep 19 | 500 LV | 44.0 | 48.0 | Letlow +4.0 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Jul 22 | 518 RV | 37.0 | 41.0 | Letlow +4.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.