Alaska Senate race
Mary Peltola (D) and Dan Sullivan (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in Alaska. Across 11 polls, the Frothier average has Mary Peltola at 47.3% and Dan Sullivan at 45.0%, which is Peltola +2.3. After blending the polls with how Alaska usually votes, the estimate is Peltola +0.7. That gives Mary Peltola a 55% chance of winning, and the race is rated Toss-up. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Peltola leads; below it Sullivan leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Peltola (D) | Sullivan (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | Oct 3 | 1,512 LV | 47.0 | 45.0 | Peltola +2.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 1 | 504 LV | 50.1 | 43.1 | Peltola +7.0 |
| Quantus Insights | Sep 30 | 758 LV | 46.5 | 46.8 | Sullivan +0.3 |
| Trafalgar GroupR poll | Sep 24 | 1,079 LV | 45.5 | 46.8 | Sullivan +1.3 |
| co/efficient | Sep 17 | 799 LV | 46.0 | 48.0 | Sullivan +2.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Sep 12 | 1,352 LV | 48.4 | 43.8 | Peltola +4.6 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | Sep 11 | 800 LV | 46.0 | 41.0 | Peltola +5.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Aug 23 | 1,495 LV | 50.6 | 49.4 | Peltola +1.2 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Aug 5 | 1,371 LV | 50.8 | 49.2 | Peltola +1.6 |
| Data for Progress | Aug 4 | 605 LV | 47.0 | 41.0 | Peltola +6.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 29 | 593 LV | 45.1 | 47.5 | Sullivan +2.4 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Jun 7 | 1,393 LV | 49.4 | 44.2 | Peltola +5.2 |
| Alaska Survey Research | May 17 | 1,401 LV | 48.4 | 43.8 | Peltola +4.6 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Apr 19 | 1,946 LV | 49.1 | 42.5 | Peltola +6.6 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Mar 22 | 1,340 RV | 48.8 | 43.5 | Peltola +5.3 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Jan 17 | 611 RV | 49.0 | 47.0 | Peltola +2.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Jan 11 | 1,681 LV | 48.0 | 46.4 | Peltola +1.6 |
| Data for Progress | Oct 23 | 823 RV | 46.0 | 45.0 | Peltola +1.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Oct 15 | 1,708 LV | 47.7 | 45.9 | Peltola +1.8 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Aug 1 | 1,613 LV | 42.5 | 46.7 | Sullivan +4.2 |
| Data for Progress | Jul 27 | 678 LV | 45.0 | 46.0 | Sullivan +1.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Apr 25 | 1,261 LV | 44.0 | 41.0 | Peltola +3.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.