Alaska governor's race
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) and Bernadette Wilson (R) are running for governor of Alaska. Across 5 polls, the Frothier average has Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 44.3% and Bernadette Wilson at 23.4%, which is Kreiss-Tomkins +20.9. After blending the polls with how Alaska usually votes, the estimate is Kreiss-Tomkins +16.3. That gives Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins a 99% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe D. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Kreiss-Tomkins leads; below it Wilson leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Kreiss-Tomkins (D) | Wilson (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | Oct 3 | 1,512 LV | 48.0 | 27.0 | Kreiss-Tomkins +21.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 1 | 504 LV | 40.2 | 20.1 | Kreiss-Tomkins +20.2 |
| co/efficient | Sep 17 | 799 LV | 43.0 | 20.0 | Kreiss-Tomkins +23.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | Sep 11 | 800 LV | 40.0 | 20.0 | Kreiss-Tomkins +20.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Jul 1 | LV | 15.5 | 21.8 | Wilson +6.3 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.