Wisconsin governor's race
David Crowley (D) and Tom Tiffany (R) are running for governor of Wisconsin. Across 6 polls, the Frothier average has David Crowley at 48.6% and Tom Tiffany at 45.3%, which is Crowley +3.4. After blending the polls with how Wisconsin usually votes, the estimate is Crowley +3.7. That gives David Crowley a 70% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean D. The seat is currently held by Democrats.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Crowley leads; below it Tiffany leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Crowley (D) | Tiffany (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette University Law School | Sep 23 | 692 LV | 49.0 | 46.0 | Crowley +3.0 |
| Marquette University Law School | Aug 20 | 738 LV | 49.0 | 44.0 | Crowley +5.0 |
| TIPP InsightsR poll | Aug 18 | 1,187 LV | 46.7 | 43.4 | Crowley +3.4 |
| Platform Communications | Aug 13 | 500 LV | 48.0 | 44.0 | Crowley +4.0 |
| GBAOD poll | Aug 3 | 800 LV | 47.0 | 44.0 | Crowley +3.0 |
| RMG Research | Jul 24 | 800 RV | 46.0 | 43.0 | Crowley +3.0 |
| TIPP InsightsR poll | Mar 19 | 1,168 LV | 42.3 | 40.8 | Crowley +1.5 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.