Oregon governor's race
Tina Kotek (D) and Christine Drazan (R) are running for governor of Oregon. Across 3 polls, the Frothier average has Tina Kotek at 45.5% and Christine Drazan at 46.7%, which is Drazan +1.2. After blending the polls with how Oregon usually votes, the estimate is Kotek +2.4. That gives Tina Kotek a 63% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt D. The seat is currently held by Democrats.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Kotek leads; below it Drazan leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Kotek (D) | Drazan (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHM Research | Sep 27 | 915 LV | 46.0 | 47.0 | Drazan +1.0 |
| DHM Research | Sep 9 | 600 LV | 43.0 | 45.0 | Drazan +2.0 |
| Public Opinion StrategiesR poll | Jun 24 | 600 RV | 44.0 | 48.0 | Drazan +4.0 |
| Hoffman Research GroupR poll | May 12 | 603 LV | 45.0 | 45.0 | Even |
| FM3 Research | Feb 4 | 1,065 LV | 45.0 | 40.0 | Kotek +5.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.