Texas governor's race
Gina Hinojosa (D) and Greg Abbott (R) are running for governor of Texas. Across 28 polls, the Frothier average has Gina Hinojosa at 46.5% and Greg Abbott at 48.3%, which is Abbott +1.8. After blending the polls with how Texas usually votes, the estimate is Abbott +2.0. That gives Greg Abbott a 63% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt R. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Hinojosa leads; below it Abbott leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Hinojosa (D) | Abbott (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Oct 5 | 3,622 LV | 48.0 | 47.0 | Hinojosa +1.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 30 | 615 LV | 49.0 | 45.5 | Hinojosa +3.5 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Sep 28 | 881 LV | 47.0 | 52.0 | Abbott +5.0 |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy | Sep 28 | 800 LV | 44.0 | 46.0 | Abbott +2.0 |
| Big Data Poll | Sep 26 | 698 LV | 44.4 | 48.9 | Abbott +4.5 |
| Stratus IntelligenceR poll | Sep 24 | 865 LV | 45.0 | 50.0 | Abbott +5.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies | Sep 22 | 1,007 LV | 46.0 | 50.0 | Abbott +4.0 |
| Marist University | Sep 20 | 1,139 RV | 49.0 | 46.0 | Hinojosa +3.0 |
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | Sep 19 | 1,800 LV | 45.0 | 49.0 | Abbott +4.0 |
| Emerson College | Sep 14 | 1,000 LV | 45.5 | 48.7 | Abbott +3.2 |
| SoCal Strategies | Sep 13 | 649 LV | 44.0 | 52.0 | Abbott +8.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena Research Institute | Sep 11 | 614 LV | 49.0 | 45.0 | Hinojosa +4.0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | Sep 10 | 625 LV | 41.0 | 48.0 | Abbott +7.0 |
| YouGov | Sep 4 | 1,000 RV | 47.0 | 47.0 | Even |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | Sep 1 | 895 LV | 46.0 | 49.0 | Abbott +3.0 |
| Overton Insights | Aug 26 | 1,167 LV | 48.8 | 51.2 | Abbott +2.4 |
| Slingshot Strategies | Aug 24 | 1,000 LV | 42.0 | 49.0 | Abbott +7.0 |
| YouGov | Aug 13 | 1,200 RV | 40.0 | 45.0 | Abbott +5.0 |
| Emerson College | Aug 10 | 1,000 LV | 45.0 | 48.5 | Abbott +3.5 |
| GBAOD poll | Aug 9 | 1,000 LV | 48.0 | 49.0 | Abbott +1.0 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Jul 31 | 800 LV | 44.0 | 50.0 | Abbott +6.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena Research Institute | Jul 30 | 619 LV | 45.0 | 46.0 | Abbott +1.0 |
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | Jul 30 | 1,200 LV | 43.0 | 49.0 | Abbott +6.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Jul 27 | 1,006 RV | 49.0 | 50.0 | Abbott +1.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies | Jul 17 | 1,048 LV | 42.0 | 45.0 | Abbott +3.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.