Texas Senate race
James Talarico (D) and Ken Paxton (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas. Across 32 polls, the Frothier average has James Talarico at 48.8% and Ken Paxton at 45.1%, which is Talarico +3.6. After blending the polls with how Texas usually votes, the estimate is Talarico +1.7. That gives James Talarico a 63% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt D. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Talarico leads; below it Paxton leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Talarico (D) | Paxton (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Oct 5 | 3,623 LV | 50.0 | 44.0 | Talarico +6.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 30 | 615 LV | 50.8 | 45.1 | Talarico +5.7 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Sep 28 | 881 LV | 51.0 | 49.0 | Talarico +2.0 |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy | Sep 28 | 800 LV | 47.0 | 44.0 | Talarico +3.0 |
| Pulse Decision ScienceR poll | Sep 27 | 800 LV | 45.0 | 48.0 | Paxton +3.0 |
| Big Data Poll | Sep 26 | 698 LV | 46.8 | 44.9 | Talarico +1.9 |
| Stratus IntelligenceR poll | Sep 24 | 865 LV | 48.0 | 48.0 | Even |
| Slingshot Strategies | Sep 22 | 1,007 LV | 49.0 | 44.0 | Talarico +5.0 |
| Marist University | Sep 20 | 1,139 RV | 50.0 | 44.0 | Talarico +6.0 |
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | Sep 19 | 1,800 LV | 47.0 | 46.0 | Talarico +1.0 |
| Trafalgar GroupR poll | Sep 17 | 1,079 LV | 46.4 | 45.2 | Talarico +1.2 |
| Emerson College | Sep 14 | 1,000 LV | 47.4 | 46.4 | Talarico +1.0 |
| SoCal Strategies | Sep 13 | 649 LV | 50.0 | 45.0 | Talarico +5.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena Research Institute | Sep 11 | 614 LV | 49.0 | 43.0 | Talarico +6.0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | Sep 10 | 625 LV | 46.0 | 43.0 | Talarico +3.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 9 | 1,200 LV | 47.1 | 45.6 | Talarico +1.5 |
| YouGov | Sep 4 | 1,000 RV | 48.0 | 43.0 | Talarico +5.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | Sep 1 | 895 LV | 48.0 | 44.0 | Talarico +4.0 |
| Overton Insights | Aug 26 | 1,167 LV | 50.0 | 50.0 | Even |
| Slingshot Strategies | Aug 24 | 1,000 LV | 48.0 | 42.0 | Talarico +6.0 |
| YouGov | Aug 13 | 1,200 RV | 42.0 | 39.0 | Talarico +3.0 |
| Emerson College | Aug 10 | 1,000 LV | 46.3 | 47.3 | Paxton +1.0 |
| YouGov Blue | Jul 31 | 1,001 LV | 48.0 | 45.0 | Talarico +3.0 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Jul 31 | 800 LV | 48.0 | 46.0 | Talarico +2.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena Research Institute | Jul 30 | 619 LV | 47.0 | 43.0 | Talarico +4.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.