Mississippi Senate race
Scott Colom (D) and Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in Mississippi. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Scott Colom at 36.8% and Cindy Hyde-Smith at 45.2%, which is Hyde-Smith +8.5. After blending the polls with how Mississippi usually votes, the estimate is Hyde-Smith +10.5. That gives Cindy Hyde-Smith a 94% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely R. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Colom leads; below it Hyde-Smith leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Colom (D) | Hyde-Smith (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for ProgressD poll | Aug 15 | 1,018 LV | 38.0 | 44.0 | Hyde-Smith +6.0 |
| Impact ResearchD poll | Apr 12 | 500 LV | 39.0 | 42.0 | Hyde-Smith +3.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.