Ohio Senate race
Sherrod Brown (D) and Jon Husted (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in Ohio. Across 16 polls, the Frothier average has Sherrod Brown at 47.6% and Jon Husted at 44.0%, which is Brown +3.7. After blending the polls with how Ohio usually votes, the estimate is Brown +2.3. That gives Sherrod Brown a 66% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean D. The seat is currently held by Republicans, and this is a special election.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Brown leads; below it Husted leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Brown (D) | Husted (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 1 | 616 LV | 48.8 | 46.1 | Brown +2.7 |
| YouGov | Sep 30 | 3,777 LV | 49.0 | 45.0 | Brown +4.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 29 | 1,200 LV | 43.8 | 42.5 | Brown +1.3 |
| Big Data Poll | Sep 27 | 680 LV | 46.3 | 42.6 | Brown +3.7 |
| Suffolk University | Sep 27 | 500 LV | 46.6 | 44.0 | Brown +2.6 |
| Marist University | Sep 27 | 1,298 RV | 51.0 | 43.0 | Brown +8.0 |
| Quantus Insights | Sep 23 | 695 LV | 47.3 | 46.8 | Brown +0.5 |
| Trafalgar GroupR poll | Sep 16 | 1,085 LV | 45.4 | 41.5 | Brown +3.9 |
| YouGov | Sep 10 | 1,000 LV | 48.0 | 45.0 | Brown +3.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 9 | 1,200 LV | 47.3 | 41.9 | Brown +5.4 |
| Abacus Data | Aug 28 | 306 LV | 46.0 | 41.0 | Brown +5.0 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Aug 13 | 800 LV | 48.0 | 44.0 | Brown +4.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Aug 10 | 1,008 RV | 53.0 | 45.0 | Brown +8.0 |
| Tulchin ResearchD poll | Aug 4 | 600 LV | 47.0 | 43.0 | Brown +4.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 28 | 601 LV | 47.0 | 49.8 | Husted +2.8 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | Jun 16 | 800 LV | 48.0 | 45.0 | Brown +3.0 |
| Tulchin ResearchD poll | Jun 4 | 600 LV | 46.0 | 42.0 | Brown +4.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Jun 1 | 1,015 RV | 53.0 | 45.0 | Brown +8.0 |
| Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov | Apr 14 | 1,000 RV | 47.0 | 50.0 | Husted +3.0 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 9 | 413 LV | 45.0 | 51.0 | Husted +6.0 |
| Quantus Insights | Mar 14 | 784 LV | 44.4 | 45.5 | Husted +1.1 |
| OnMessage Inc. | Mar 8 | 600 LV | 47.0 | 45.0 | Brown +2.0 |
| EMC ResearchD poll | Feb 22 | 1,343 LV | 51.0 | 47.0 | Brown +4.0 |
| Emerson College | Dec 8 | 850 RV | 46.3 | 48.8 | Husted +2.5 |
| Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov | Oct 14 | 800 RV | 49.0 | 48.0 | Brown +1.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.