South Carolina governor's race
Jermaine Johnson (D) and Alan Wilson (R) are running for governor of South Carolina. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Jermaine Johnson at 39.1% and Alan Wilson at 48.7%, which is Wilson +9.7. After blending the polls with how South Carolina usually votes, the estimate is Wilson +8.7. That gives Alan Wilson a 89% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely R. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Johnson leads; below it Wilson leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Johnson (D) | Wilson (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research AssociatesD poll | Aug 15 | 600 LV | 41.0 | 48.0 | Wilson +7.0 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Jul 17 | 577 RV | 37.0 | 45.0 | Wilson +8.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.