Georgia Senate race
Jon Ossoff (D) and Mike Collins (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in Georgia. Across 10 polls, the Frothier average has Jon Ossoff at 52.2% and Mike Collins at 43.6%, which is Ossoff +8.6. After blending the polls with how Georgia usually votes, the estimate is Ossoff +8.1. That gives Jon Ossoff a 92% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely D. The seat is currently held by Democrats.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Ossoff leads; below it Collins leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Ossoff (D) | Collins (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wedgewood Polls | Oct 3 | 600 LV | 55.0 | 45.0 | Ossoff +10.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 23 | 1,200 LV | 50.0 | 42.0 | Ossoff +8.0 |
| Big Data Poll | Sep 23 | 678 LV | 55.4 | 44.6 | Ossoff +10.8 |
| YouGov | Sep 18 | 3,071 LV | 51.0 | 43.0 | Ossoff +8.0 |
| Quantus Insights | Sep 16 | 645 LV | 49.0 | 44.9 | Ossoff +4.1 |
| Trafalgar GroupR poll | Sep 12 | 1,091 LV | 49.4 | 42.8 | Ossoff +6.6 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Aug 17 | 800 LV | 50.1 | 42.6 | Ossoff +7.5 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | Jul 16 | 1,060 LV | 52.0 | 43.0 | Ossoff +9.0 |
| Wick | Jun 30 | 1,175 LV | 46.7 | 42.9 | Ossoff +3.8 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Jun 27 | 1,002 RV | 56.0 | 43.0 | Ossoff +13.0 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 9 | 407 LV | 51.0 | 44.0 | Ossoff +7.0 |
| Emerson College | Mar 2 | 1,000 LV | 47.7 | 43.3 | Ossoff +4.4 |
| Quantus Insights | Sep 12 | 624 RV | 37.8 | 37.7 | Ossoff +0.1 |
| TIPP InsightsR poll | Aug 1 | 2,395 LV | 44.9 | 44.1 | Ossoff +0.8 |
| Cygnal Political | May 17 | 800 RV | 45.7 | 43.3 | Ossoff +2.4 |
| Trafalgar GroupR poll | Apr 27 | 1,426 LV | 47.5 | 42.8 | Ossoff +4.7 |
| WPA IntelligenceR poll | Jan 15 | 500 LV | 44.0 | 34.0 | Ossoff +10.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.