Florida Senate race
Angie Nixon (D) and Ashley Moody (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in Florida. Across 9 polls, the Frothier average has Angie Nixon at 43.4% and Ashley Moody at 48.9%, which is Moody +5.5. After blending the polls with how Florida usually votes, the estimate is Moody +5.3. That gives Ashley Moody a 82% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R. The seat is currently held by Republicans, and this is a special election.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Nixon leads; below it Moody leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Nixon (D) | Moody (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Oct 5 | 3,812 LV | 44.0 | 49.0 | Moody +5.0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | Oct 1 | 625 LV | 40.0 | 50.0 | Moody +10.0 |
| Change Research | Sep 27 | 1,063 LV | 47.0 | 48.0 | Moody +1.0 |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | Sep 21 | 830 LV | 40.0 | 51.0 | Moody +11.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 21 | 600 LV | 41.8 | 49.3 | Moody +7.5 |
| St. Pete Polls | Sep 17 | 913 LV | 44.8 | 45.2 | Moody +0.4 |
| Quantus Insights | Sep 10 | 733 LV | 43.0 | 50.4 | Moody +7.4 |
| Change Research | Sep 9 | 1,107 LV | 47.0 | 47.0 | Even |
| University of North Florida | Jul 17 | 848 LV | 41.6 | 50.0 | Moody +8.4 |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | Apr 13 | 414 LV | 38.0 | 51.0 | Moody +13.0 |
| Emerson College | Mar 31 | 1,125 LV | 36.3 | 47.3 | Moody +11.0 |
| University of North Florida | Mar 2 | 768 LV | 38.0 | 46.0 | Moody +8.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.