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Ohio 7 House race

Updated October 8, 2026 · 26 days until the November 3 election

Brian Poindexter (D) and Generic Republican (R) are running for the House seat in Ohio 7. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Brian Poindexter at 37.8% and Generic Republican at 45.3%, which is Republican +7.5. That gives Generic Republican a 79% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R.

Rating
Lean R
Set by the win estimate
Chance of winning
79%
Generic Republican (R)
Polling average
Republican +7.5
1 poll, newest Aug 10
Frothier estimate
Republican +7.5
Give or take 9.1 points

Where the race stands

Brian PoindexterDemocrat
37.8%
Generic RepublicanRepublican
45.3%
Chance of winning
Poindexter 21%Republican 79%

How the polls have moved

The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Poindexter leads; below it Republican leads.

D+9EvenR+9Aug 13Oct 8

Recent polls

Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.

PollsterEndedSamplePoindexter (D)Republican (R)Margin
Bedrock PollingD poll Aug 10866 LV 39.044.0Republican +5.0

How this estimate is made

Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.

Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.

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