Pennsylvania 10 House race
Janelle Stelson (D) and Scott Perry (R) are running for the House seat in Pennsylvania 10. Across 4 polls, the Frothier average has Janelle Stelson at 47.0% and Scott Perry at 44.0%, which is Stelson +3.0. That gives Janelle Stelson a 63% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt D.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Stelson leads; below it Perry leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Stelson (D) | Perry (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin & Marshall College | Sep 20 | 378 RV | 47.0 | 44.0 | Stelson +3.0 |
| Normington, Petts & AssociatesD poll | Apr 23 | 400 RV | 51.0 | 45.0 | Stelson +6.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | Nov 19 | 549 RV | 48.0 | 44.0 | Stelson +4.0 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Jul 11 | 559 RV | 46.0 | 43.0 | Stelson +3.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.