Pennsylvania governor's race
Josh Shapiro (D) and Stacy Garrity (R) are running for governor of Pennsylvania. Across 12 polls, the Frothier average has Josh Shapiro at 56.3% and Stacy Garrity at 32.6%, which is Shapiro +23.6. After blending the polls with how Pennsylvania usually votes, the estimate is Shapiro +20.0. That gives Josh Shapiro a >99% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe D. The seat is currently held by Democrats.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Shapiro leads; below it Garrity leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Shapiro (D) | Garrity (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | Oct 5 | 1,159 LV | 59.0 | 34.0 | Shapiro +25.0 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. | Sep 30 | 700 LV | 52.0 | 31.0 | Shapiro +21.0 |
| Bravo Group | Sep 22 | 624 RV | 55.1 | 27.7 | Shapiro +27.4 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 22 | 615 LV | 58.4 | 37.7 | Shapiro +20.8 |
| Franklin & Marshall College | Aug 23 | 501 RV | 50.0 | 25.0 | Shapiro +25.0 |
| Bravo Group | Aug 22 | 711 LV | 56.4 | 25.2 | Shapiro +31.2 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Aug 21 | 760 LV | 54.8 | 38.7 | Shapiro +16.1 |
| Bravo Group | Jul 24 | 630 LV | 53.4 | 28.1 | Shapiro +25.3 |
| Quinnipiac University | Jul 13 | 895 RV | 53.0 | 40.0 | Shapiro +13.0 |
| Bravo Group | Jun 25 | 644 LV | 53.7 | 29.3 | Shapiro +24.4 |
| Franklin & Marshall College | Jun 14 | 546 RV | 50.0 | 28.0 | Shapiro +22.0 |
| MAD Global Strategy | Jun 11 | 600 LV | 48.0 | 31.0 | Shapiro +17.0 |
| Bravo Group | May 24 | 684 LV | 53.4 | 28.8 | Shapiro +24.6 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. | Mar 29 | 700 LV | 58.0 | 36.0 | Shapiro +22.0 |
| Franklin & Marshall College | Mar 1 | 834 RV | 48.0 | 28.0 | Shapiro +20.0 |
| Quinnipiac University | Feb 23 | 836 RV | 55.0 | 37.0 | Shapiro +18.0 |
| Quinnipiac University | Sep 29 | 1,579 RV | 55.0 | 39.0 | Shapiro +16.0 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. | Sep 28 | 700 LV | 54.0 | 36.0 | Shapiro +18.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.