Pennsylvania 1 House race
Bob Harvie (D) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R) are running for the House seat in Pennsylvania 1. Across 3 polls, the Frothier average has Bob Harvie at 43.9% and Brian Fitzpatrick at 49.7%, which is Fitzpatrick +5.8. That gives Brian Fitzpatrick a 76% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Harvie leads; below it Fitzpatrick leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Harvie (D) | Fitzpatrick (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion StrategiesR poll | Sep 14 | 400 RV | 42.0 | 51.0 | Fitzpatrick +9.0 |
| GQRD poll | Aug 23 | 400 LV | 48.0 | 49.0 | Fitzpatrick +1.0 |
| Global Strategy GroupD poll | Aug 9 | 500 LV | 43.0 | 47.0 | Fitzpatrick +4.0 |
| Global Strategy GroupD poll | Mar 22 | 400 LV | 42.0 | 48.0 | Fitzpatrick +6.0 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Oct 11 | 585 LV | 41.0 | 41.0 | Even |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.