Pennsylvania 8 House race
Paige Cognetti (D) and Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R) are running for the House seat in Pennsylvania 8. Across 3 polls, the Frothier average has Paige Cognetti at 45.4% and Rob Bresnahan Jr. at 46.2%, which is Bresnahan +0.9. That gives Rob Bresnahan Jr. a 54% chance of winning, and the race is rated Toss-up.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Cognetti leads; below it Bresnahan leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Cognetti (D) | Bresnahan (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research PartnersD poll | Jun 23 | 400 LV | 47.0 | 45.0 | Cognetti +2.0 |
| Impact ResearchD poll | Jun 11 | 500 LV | 46.0 | 45.0 | Cognetti +1.0 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Aug 28 | 615 RV | 45.0 | 43.0 | Cognetti +2.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.