Minnesota 1 House race
Jake Johnson (D) and Brad Finstad (R) are running for the House seat in Minnesota 1. Across 3 polls, the Frothier average has Jake Johnson at 45.7% and Brad Finstad at 47.3%, which is Finstad +1.5. That gives Brad Finstad a 57% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Johnson leads; below it Finstad leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Johnson (D) | Finstad (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAOD poll | Sep 21 | 500 LV | 47.0 | 46.0 | Johnson +1.0 |
| Ragnar Research PartnersR poll | Mar 14 | 400 LV | 42.0 | 52.0 | Finstad +10.0 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Feb 3 | 708 RV | 41.0 | 44.0 | Finstad +3.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.