Who is leading the Minnesota Senate race polls?

Peggy Flanagan +1.7 in the Frothier average of 7 polls (Peggy Flanagan 45.3%, Michele Tafoya 43.7%), as of October 8, 2026.

Who is favored to win the Minnesota Senate race?

Frothier rates the race Lean D. Peggy Flanagan has about a 78% chance of winning. That is a probability, not a call.

Minnesota Senate race

Updated October 8, 2026 · 26 days until the November 3 election

Peggy Flanagan (D) and Michele Tafoya (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in Minnesota. Across 7 polls, the Frothier average has Peggy Flanagan at 45.3% and Michele Tafoya at 43.7%, which is Flanagan +1.7. After blending the polls with how Minnesota usually votes, the estimate is Flanagan +4.4. That gives Peggy Flanagan a 78% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean D. The seat is currently held by Democrats.

Rating

Lean D

Set by the win estimate

Chance of winning

78%

Peggy Flanagan (D)

Polling average

Flanagan +1.7

7 polls, newest Sep 30

Frothier estimate

Flanagan +4.4

Give or take 5.7 points

Where the race stands

Peggy FlanaganDemocrat

45.3%

Michele TafoyaRepublican

43.7%

Chance of winning

Flanagan 78%Tafoya 22%

How the polls have moved

The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Flanagan leads; below it Tafoya leads.

Recent polls

Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.

Pollster	Ended	Sample	Flanagan (D)	Tafoya (R)	Margin
Big Data Poll	Sep 30	622 LV	45.8	43.6	Flanagan +2.2
InsiderAdvantage	Sep 29	1,200 LV	46.0	45.0	Flanagan +1.0
co/efficient	Sep 15	833 LV	43.0	42.0	Flanagan +1.0
SurveyUSA	Sep 14	654 LV	42.0	42.0	Even
Quantus Insights	Sep 10	720 LV	48.9	45.4	Flanagan +3.5
TIPP InsightsR poll	Sep 2	1,192 LV	44.0	41.9	Flanagan +2.1
SurveyUSA	Aug 17	661 LV	46.0	41.0	Flanagan +5.0
Impact ResearchD poll	May 28	808 LV	51.0	44.0	Flanagan +7.0
Emerson College	Feb 8	1,000 LV	47.1	40.6	Flanagan +6.5
Impact ResearchD poll	Jul 11	604 LV	48.0	45.0	Flanagan +3.0

How this estimate is made

Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.

Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.