Minnesota governor's race
Amy Klobuchar (D) and Lisa Demuth (R) are running for governor of Minnesota. Across 5 polls, the Frothier average has Amy Klobuchar at 47.8% and Lisa Demuth at 41.8%, which is Klobuchar +6.1. After blending the polls with how Minnesota usually votes, the estimate is Klobuchar +6.4. That gives Amy Klobuchar a 83% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean D. The seat is currently held by Democrats.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Klobuchar leads; below it Demuth leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Klobuchar (D) | Demuth (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | Sep 15 | 833 LV | 47.0 | 45.0 | Klobuchar +2.0 |
| SurveyUSA | Sep 14 | 654 LV | 47.0 | 40.0 | Klobuchar +7.0 |
| TIPP InsightsR poll | Sep 2 | 1,192 LV | 49.7 | 39.8 | Klobuchar +9.8 |
| SurveyUSA | Aug 17 | 661 LV | 52.0 | 36.0 | Klobuchar +16.0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | Jun 10 | 800 LV | 48.0 | 40.0 | Klobuchar +8.0 |
| Emerson College | Feb 8 | 1,000 LV | 51.1 | 37.7 | Klobuchar +13.4 |
| SurveyUSA | Jan 30 | 575 RV | 49.0 | 34.0 | Klobuchar +15.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.