Minnesota 2 House race
Matt Little (D) and Eric Pratt (R) are running for the House seat in Minnesota 2. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Matt Little at 50.7% and Eric Pratt at 41.2%, which is Little +9.5. That gives Matt Little a 85% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely D.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Little leads; below it Pratt leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Little (D) | Pratt (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact ResearchD poll | Sep 13 | 500 LV | 52.0 | 40.0 | Little +12.0 |
| Harper PollingR poll | Jun 21 | 415 LV | 45.0 | 40.0 | Little +5.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.