New York 17 House race
Cait Conley (D) and Mike Lawler (R) are running for the House seat in New York 17. Across 4 polls, the Frothier average has Cait Conley at 47.9% and Mike Lawler at 46.8%, which is Conley +1.1. That gives Cait Conley a 55% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt D.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Conley leads; below it Lawler leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Conley (D) | Lawler (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & AssociatesR poll | Sep 30 | 400 LV | 47.0 | 50.0 | Lawler +3.0 |
| Emerson College | Sep 29 | 400 LV | 47.9 | 45.6 | Conley +2.3 |
| co/efficient | Jul 22 | 1,292 LV | 45.0 | 50.0 | Lawler +5.0 |
| FM3 ResearchD poll | Jul 1 | 509 LV | 51.0 | 45.0 | Conley +6.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.