North Carolina 11 House race
Jamie Ager (D) and Generic Republican (R) are running for the House seat in North Carolina 11. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Jamie Ager at 45.8% and Generic Republican at 45.3%, which is Ager +0.5. That gives Jamie Ager a 52% chance of winning, and the race is rated Toss-up.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Ager leads; below it Republican leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Ager (D) | Republican (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Sep 11 | 531 RV | 47.0 | 44.0 | Ager +3.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.