North Carolina 7 House race
Kimberly Hardy (D) and David Rouzer (R) are running for the House seat in North Carolina 7. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Kimberly Hardy at 37.8% and David Rouzer at 46.3%, which is Rouzer +8.5. That gives David Rouzer a 82% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Hardy leads; below it Rouzer leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Hardy (D) | Rouzer (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Aug 20 | 517 RV | 39.0 | 45.0 | Rouzer +6.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.