North Carolina 3 House race
Raymond Smith Jr. (D) and Greg Murphy (R) are running for the House seat in North Carolina 3. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Raymond Smith Jr. at 39.8% and Greg Murphy at 45.3%, which is Murphy +5.5. That gives Greg Murphy a 73% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Smith leads; below it Murphy leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Smith (D) | Murphy (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin ResearchD poll | Aug 2 | LV | 41.0 | 44.0 | Murphy +3.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.