North Carolina 1 House race
Don Davis (D) and Laurie Buckhout (R) are running for the House seat in North Carolina 1. Across 3 polls, the Frothier average has Don Davis at 46.5% and Laurie Buckhout at 41.2%, which is Davis +5.2. That gives Don Davis a 73% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean D.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Davis leads; below it Buckhout leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Davis (D) | Buckhout (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQRD poll | Oct 4 | 500 LV | 47.0 | 39.0 | Davis +8.0 |
| GBAOD poll | Sep 11 | 500 LV | 50.0 | 43.0 | Davis +7.0 |
| GQRD poll | Jun 28 | 500 LV | 45.0 | 41.0 | Davis +4.0 |
| co/efficientR poll | Apr 29 | 842 LV | 41.0 | 41.0 | Even |
| GQRD poll | Feb 2 | 500 LV | 42.0 | 39.0 | Davis +3.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.