North Carolina Senate race
Roy Cooper (D) and Michael Whatley (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in North Carolina. Across 21 polls, the Frothier average has Roy Cooper at 50.6% and Michael Whatley at 41.0%, which is Cooper +9.6. After blending the polls with how North Carolina usually votes, the estimate is Cooper +8.7. That gives Roy Cooper a 94% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely D. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Cooper leads; below it Whatley leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Cooper (D) | Whatley (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Data Poll | Sep 29 | 642 LV | 50.8 | 38.5 | Cooper +12.3 |
| Quantus Insights | Sep 22 | 686 LV | 48.4 | 43.3 | Cooper +5.1 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | Sep 20 | 1,115 LV | 53.0 | 42.0 | Cooper +11.0 |
| Opinion Diagnostics | Sep 20 | 857 LV | 51.7 | 43.5 | Cooper +8.2 |
| YouGov | Sep 18 | 3,742 LV | 53.0 | 41.0 | Cooper +12.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 17 | 1,200 LV | 48.4 | 42.5 | Cooper +5.9 |
| High Point University | Sep 16 | 706 LV | 50.0 | 42.0 | Cooper +8.0 |
| YouGov | Sep 15 | 885 LV | 48.0 | 37.0 | Cooper +11.0 |
| Harper Polling | Sep 15 | 608 LV | 49.2 | 34.1 | Cooper +15.1 |
| Trafalgar GroupR poll | Sep 10 | 1,084 LV | 48.2 | 42.3 | Cooper +5.9 |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | Sep 3 | 675 LV | 51.7 | 43.6 | Cooper +8.1 |
| YouGov | Aug 31 | 565 LV | 49.0 | 38.0 | Cooper +11.0 |
| High Point University | Aug 12 | 660 LV | 50.0 | 45.0 | Cooper +5.0 |
| Harper Polling | Aug 10 | 600 LV | 51.5 | 39.0 | Cooper +12.5 |
| Change ResearchD poll | Aug 6 | 915 LV | 50.1 | 42.9 | Cooper +7.1 |
| Change ResearchD poll | Aug 1 | 967 RV | 50.0 | 41.0 | Cooper +9.0 |
| YouGov | Jul 31 | 466 LV | 53.0 | 42.0 | Cooper +11.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Jul 27 | 1,005 RV | 53.0 | 44.0 | Cooper +9.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 11 | 759 RV | 48.0 | 44.0 | Cooper +4.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 27 | 601 LV | 50.0 | 43.2 | Cooper +6.8 |
| YouGov | Jun 10 | 905 LV | 47.7 | 34.0 | Cooper +13.7 |
| Harper Polling | May 11 | 600 LV | 49.8 | 38.7 | Cooper +11.1 |
| Change ResearchD poll | May 8 | 957 LV | 49.3 | 42.4 | Cooper +6.9 |
| Opinion Diagnostics | Apr 24 | 830 RV | 50.4 | 41.4 | Cooper +9.0 |
| Opinion Diagnostics | Apr 24 | 830 RV | 50.4 | 41.4 | Cooper +9.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.