Ohio 15 House race
Don Leonard (D) and Mike Carey (R) are running for the House seat in Ohio 15. Across 3 polls, the Frothier average has Don Leonard at 44.3% and Mike Carey at 46.0%, which is Carey +1.8. That gives Mike Carey a 58% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Leonard leads; below it Carey leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Leonard (D) | Carey (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research AssociatesD poll | Sep 24 | 500 LV | 46.0 | 45.0 | Leonard +1.0 |
| Hart Research AssociatesD poll | Aug 9 | 401 LV | 37.0 | 41.0 | Carey +4.0 |
| Hart Research AssociatesD poll | Jun 25 | 550 LV | 40.0 | 45.0 | Carey +5.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.