Ohio 9 House race
Marcy Kaptur (D) and Derek Merrin (R) are running for the House seat in Ohio 9. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Marcy Kaptur at 46.7% and Derek Merrin at 49.2%, which is Merrin +2.5. That gives Derek Merrin a 61% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Kaptur leads; below it Merrin leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Kaptur (D) | Merrin (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting TeamD poll | Sep 23 | 481 LV | 48.0 | 48.0 | Even |
| McLaughlin & AssociatesR poll | Apr 20 | 400 LV | 43.0 | 47.0 | Merrin +4.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.