New York governor's race
Kathy Hochul (D) and Bruce Blakeman (R) are running for governor of New York. Across 11 polls, the Frothier average has Kathy Hochul at 52.0% and Bruce Blakeman at 41.0%, which is Hochul +11.1. After blending the polls with how New York usually votes, the estimate is Hochul +11.4. That gives Kathy Hochul a 96% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely D. The seat is currently held by Democrats.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Hochul leads; below it Blakeman leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Hochul (D) | Blakeman (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist University | Oct 4 | 1,361 RV | 53.0 | 42.0 | Hochul +11.0 |
| co/efficient | Sep 25 | 1,046 LV | 48.0 | 41.0 | Hochul +7.0 |
| Quinnipiac University | Sep 20 | 1,026 LV | 58.0 | 39.0 | Hochul +19.0 |
| Siena University | Sep 17 | 1,144 LV | 50.0 | 41.0 | Hochul +9.0 |
| McLaughlin & AssociatesR poll | Aug 31 | 800 LV | 49.6 | 45.7 | Hochul +3.9 |
| Concord Public Opinion PartnersD poll | Aug 21 | 505 LV | 50.0 | 34.0 | Hochul +16.0 |
| Siena University | Aug 6 | 811 LV | 49.0 | 39.0 | Hochul +10.0 |
| Moxie Strategies | Jul 28 | 813 Adults | 49.0 | 37.0 | Hochul +12.0 |
| Red Oak StrategicR poll | Jul 12 | 2,000 RV | 47.0 | 43.0 | Hochul +4.0 |
| co/efficient | Jul 2 | 1,085 LV | 47.0 | 41.0 | Hochul +6.0 |
| Siena University | Jun 23 | 1,120 RV | 52.0 | 32.0 | Hochul +20.0 |
| Siena University | Apr 30 | 806 RV | 49.0 | 33.0 | Hochul +16.0 |
| Echelon Insights | Mar 26 | 500 LV | 55.0 | 40.0 | Hochul +15.0 |
| Siena University | Mar 26 | 804 RV | 47.0 | 34.0 | Hochul +13.0 |
| McLaughlin & AssociatesR poll | Mar 8 | 800 LV | 52.0 | 43.0 | Hochul +9.0 |
| Siena University | Feb 26 | 805 RV | 51.0 | 31.0 | Hochul +20.0 |
| Marist University | Feb 19 | 1,442 RV | 50.0 | 33.0 | Hochul +17.0 |
| MAD Global Strategy | Feb 4 | 600 LV | 47.0 | 34.0 | Hochul +13.0 |
| Siena University | Jan 28 | 802 RV | 54.0 | 28.0 | Hochul +26.0 |
| John Zogby Strategies | Jan 8 | 844 LV | 49.0 | 34.0 | Hochul +15.0 |
| Siena University | Dec 12 | 801 RV | 50.0 | 25.0 | Hochul +25.0 |
| J.L. Partners | Nov 10 | 500 LV | 47.0 | 36.0 | Hochul +11.0 |
| Siena University | Jun 26 | 800 RV | 44.0 | 19.0 | Hochul +25.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.