New York 21 House race
Blake Gendebien (D) and Anthony Constantino (R) are running for the House seat in New York 21. Across 4 polls, the Frothier average has Blake Gendebien at 41.8% and Anthony Constantino at 48.2%, which is Constantino +6.4. That gives Anthony Constantino a 80% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Gendebien leads; below it Constantino leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Gendebien (D) | Constantino (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Sep 10 | 557 RV | 43.0 | 48.0 | Constantino +5.0 |
| Impact ResearchD poll | Sep 2 | 500 LV | 44.0 | 47.0 | Constantino +3.0 |
| J.L. Partners | Aug 17 | 500 LV | 40.0 | 53.0 | Constantino +13.0 |
| SurveyUSA | Aug 8 | 612 LV | 43.0 | 39.0 | Gendebien +4.0 |
| Impact ResearchD poll | May 31 | 500 LV | 44.0 | 45.0 | Constantino +1.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.