New York 23 House race
Aaron Gies (D) and Nick Langworthy (R) are running for the House seat in New York 23. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Aaron Gies at 33.8% and Nick Langworthy at 53.2%, which is Langworthy +19.5. That gives Nick Langworthy a 98% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Gies leads; below it Langworthy leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Gies (D) | Langworthy (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Sep 23 | 626 LV | 35.0 | 52.0 | Langworthy +17.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.